Socio-economic profiles of Cornwall’s (slightly) new constituencies

I have updated the socio-economic data for the six Cornish constituencies, all of which have very slight boundary changes. For the changes see here.

The data includes

• The proportion of older voters (traditionally most likely to vote Tory) and young voters (who may find that they can’t vote even if they’re on the electoral register as awareness of the new ID requirements among young people is shockingly low). The highest number of young voters is found in Truro and Falmouth, a Labour target, while older voters are most numerous in South East Cornwall, which is good news for the Tories’ Sheryll Murray.
• Cornish identity – Camborne and Redruth is the most subjectively ‘Cornish’; South East Cornwall the least.
• Religion – South East Cornwall again features as the most Christian constituency. Is this good or bad news for Sheryll? Camborne-Redruth is the least.
• Social class – It’s somewhat surprising to find that North Cornwall has a greater number of working class C2DE voters than Camborne-Redruth these days.
• Economic activity – Camborne-Redruth has the most people who are economically active and North Cornwall the least, possibly a reflection of the migration of early retirees to the latter constituency.
• Deprivation – despite having the highest number in work, Camborne-Redruth also has the highest proportion of severely deprived households.
• Second homes/holiday lets – the number of properties removed from the local housing stock by tourism is highest in St Ives, with none of the other five constituencies being particularly free of this blight.
• Owner-occupiers – the highest proportion owning their homes outright is found in South East Cornwall. They won’t be worried by higher interest rates. In contrast those paying off mortgages will and they are most likely to be found in Camborne and Redruth and St Austell and Newquay.
• Tenants – the constituency with the highest number having to rent from private landlords is St Austell and Newquay, while the highest proportion enjoying a social or ‘affordable’ rent is found in St Ives, although even there still well outnumbered by those who are forced to rely on a private landlord.

Tactical voting. Who to vote for in Cornwall

The second and final YouGov MRP poll provides no shocks but merely reiterates the conclusions of the static polling of the previous fortnight. There’s been a narrowing of the Tory lead, but too small to make any difference. Here’s the predicted vote. (Warning: there is a margin of error)

	Conservative	Labour	Lib Dem	other
St Ives	47	8	41	4
Camborne-Redruth	49	39	7	5
Truro-Falmouth	46	38	11	4
St Austell-Newquay	53	24	18	5
North Cornwall	54	8	37	2
South East Cornwall	55	20	20	5

In Cornwall the Tories are so far ahead in the eastern three constituencies that there’s no point at all there in voting ‘tactically’. The battle is for second place, with an eye on the next election.

With a 10% lead in Camborne-Redruth, George Eustice also looks safely beyond the margin of polling error. Even if all those intending to vote Lib Dem switched to Labour’s Paul Farmer, he’ll still lose. So don’t bother voting ‘tactically’ there either.

The gap in St Ives has hardly shifted since the Tories’ Derek Thomas established a lead two or three weeks ago when the Brexit Party ran away. The polls are suggesting an easier win for the Tories than in 2017. Nonetheless, the Conservative lead is still within the margin of error so it’s worth considering a Lib Dem vote here.

A second place where tactical voting is arguably worth even more serious consideration is Truro and Falmouth. Although the Tory lead here is wider than in St Ives, according to the polls it’s narrowing, and relatively quickly. Moreover, there’s still a residual Lib Dem vote here for Labour’s Jenn Forbes to sweep up.

If Lib Dems want to stop the Tory in Truro and Falmouth they must call for a Labour vote. In return Labour could call for a Lib Dem vote in St Ives if they’re really serious about getting rid of  Thomas. But are they?

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The mystery of the missing polling data

In 2017 the most accurate prediction for the election came from YouGov’s MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) model. This, based on a massive set of ongoing interviews, was updated daily in the week or ten days before polling day and indicated a gradually closing gap between Tories and Labour.

This time around YouGov produced its first estimate on November 27^th, eleven days ago. This showed a very healthy Tory lead. Since then, they’ve chosen to remain silent, unlike last time. YouGov now says it will publish its second, and presumably final, prediction at 10pm on Tuesday.

Why is this of more than passing interest to psephological anoraks like myself? Because of tactical voting.

In Britain we have 450 seats that are safe and, outside by-elections, will very rarely change hands. In those places you could vote for Lord Buckethead, spoil your paper, let the dog eat your postal vote or not bother at all, knowing that you’ll still be lumbered with a Tory or Labour MP. The other 200 seats could potentially change hands. However, it’s not easy to predict which will switch.

Tactical voting is a basically conservative strategy that merely delays the long overdue junking of a voting system designed for a two-party system that’s still being used in a multi-party system. However, until that reform arrives, if ever, we’re stuck with the necessity of voting tactically in some seats.

But which seats? Here, knowledge is the key. It’s no good relying on the simplistic assumption that just because a party came close last time, they will this time. Even worse, we can’t believe a word the parties themselves actually tell us. So we need polling data – and preferably data at a constituency level.

This is what YouGov’s MRP polling provided in 2017, when it regularly updated its findings on a daily basis. Knowing which way the trends were moving helped us more easily make a sensible and measured decision on whether to vote tactically and who for.

Take the last election in Camborne-Redruth. Here’s what the YouGov poll was predicting, updated every other day and appearing on this website. In the final week of the campaign Labour was steadily closing the gap – by 7 points – and almost stole the seat.

But this time, YouGov’s decision not to update their poll means there’s no way of knowing whether voters are swinging to Labour in this constituency more or less than elsewhere and whether Labour’s Paul Farmer is in with a realistic shot of taking the seat. Therefore, potential tactical voters like myself are unable to make a proper decision. I shall therefore stick with my preferred choice and not waste it on a tactical vote.

We could of course rely on the regular snapshot polls. However, these are not at constituency level and it’s difficult to extrapolate trends from polls that all use slightly different methodologies. The absence of the YouGov data means that in this election we have much less reliable information on which to base our decision.

Polls can of course influence voting behaviour as much as reflect it. The absence of regular YouGov updates last week when it appears Labour was (slowly) closing the gap, operated to dampen any surge that may have been occurring under the radar.

I don’t usually buy into conspiracy theories that claim opinion polls are designed to help the Tories. Yes, the usual polls underestimated the Labour vote in 2017 by almost 6%. But in 2015 they underestimated the Conservative vote by 4%. Opinion polling has become less accurate as voter volatility has increased.

But I cannot understand why YouGov has this time refused to release its data. Who does this benefit? Clearly, if information on trends is not out there, then any movement to Labour becomes less certain. People become confused on whether it’s best to vote tactically for Labour or for the Lib Dems or for others. Moreover, they are more likely to rely on the inaccurate and false findings peddled by the political parties. And the Tories therefore breath much more easily.

In addition, by 10pm on Tuesday at least one in five voters will have already voted by post, so news of any swing towards Labour that late will have absolutely no effect. Convenient, to say the least.

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Candidate-spotting at Camborne-Redruth (oh, and Hayle)

In the constituency of Camborne, Redruth and Hayle things may look depressingly normal on the surface but the impression from social media is of a furious maelstrom of political activity. Even George Eustice has actually been spotted (twice!) scurrying around the back streets of Redruth with a little band of Conservative helpers. Strangely, despite this, there’s been no reports of him being seen knocking on any doors in this same area.

Anyway, he assures us he’s getting ‘a good reception’ and a ‘positive reaction’ from voters hysterically overjoyed at the latest news that they’ll be able to park their car for free at Treliske (small print – ‘for those who need it’) the next time they turn up for their cancelled operation. George says ‘a vote for the Lib Dems makes it more likely we’ll end up with Jeremy Corbyn in No.10’. Which satanic nightmare is a bit curious as in Camborne-Redruth a Lib Dem vote will help guarantee the exact opposite.

Another small band of enthusiasts driven to manic self-flagellating bliss by brexit might be spotted trailing through the sodden streets of the constituency. It’s the frighteningly optimistic Flossie MacDonald of the Lib Dems. She’s telling local voters that ‘your confidence in me is driving me to build a better future’. Who are these voters? Please, stop encouraging her. Flossie’s exhausting breeziness is inflamed by mysteriously anonymous and cryptic comments such as ‘the word on the streets is that even strong Labour supporters are voting for Florence instead’. The weak ones are presumably voting for George.

old politics

Flossie has the answer for those confused by the Lib Dems, a not inconsiderable number one has to assume. ‘Here is something to help‘, as she unveils the tablet from the mountain, aka Lib Dem manifesto. Unfortunately, Flossie hasn’t had time to digest it fully herself. Rightly castigating Labour for abandoning plans for zero carbon emissions by 2030, she doesn’t mention the inconvenient fact that Lib Dem policy is zero by 2045.

new politics

Meanwhile, last Saturday Labour’s Paul Farmer was hitting the streets in Redruth with a couple of hundred others on a March for the Arts. In Redruth? A bit like marching in Devon for jam on scones first, surely? Anyway, Paul thinks the ‘atmosphere is positive and the energy is building’ and ‘there’s a nameless, frameless anger towards the Tory regime’. Let’s hope they can identify a frame before December 12^th then. Paul wants ‘bespoke solutions’ for Cornwall which is ‘historically its own country’.

That’s one thing the Greens’ Karen La Borde agrees on, although the Greens go further than Labour, by committing to ‘give Cornwall it’s [sic] own Assembly’. Karen’s not quite sure what else to offer the people of the constituency however. She’s appealing to fellow Greens to help her answer a question she was asked – ‘what can the Green Party do for people in this constituency? Answer in two sentences please’ she says.

Here’s one sentence. Tell the dozy buggers to wake up, smell the coffee and stop living in the past.

Talking of which, in this constituency at least, there are signs that the Liberal Party is alive and well. Well, alive anyway. Paul Holmes (75) has been present on the hustings and memorably predicts ‘I think we’ll do quite well’. Famous last words, Paul, famous last words.

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Polarisation at Pool: good versus evil in Camborne-Redruth

No need to rely on the fatuous falsehoods being flung out by Boris Johnson. In Camborne-Redruth Conservative George Eustice is beginning to adopt an altogether more Old Testament approach to campaigning. He’s now begun viewing this election through Manichean spectacles of good versus evil, good being Boris and brexit and evil being Momentum, Corbyn and his ‘marxist’ crew.

It seems George has become quite an expert on marxism. He can spot a mode of production from miles away while means of production, the extraction of surplus value and class consciousness are meat and drink to him. One trusts his knowledge of marxism extends further than his knowledge of fishing and the potential impact of brexit on it. But then, when he was grilled on that one, he was only the fishing minister in a Tory Government, so what can we expect?

Another whopper, Boris!

It’s good to see that George has recovered from the slight hiccup caused by his encounter with an actual voter while out canvassing in West Tolgus. Since then he’s been getting a ‘very positive response’ from voters, some of whose grandparents may even have voted for the Radical MP Charles Conybeare in 1885. Come back Charles, where are you when you’re needed?

George is in unstated alliance with the Lib Dems’ Flossie MacDonald, with both manically pushing the Great Brexit Distraction for all it’s worth. Makes one quite nostalgic for the good old days of the coalition government.  Flossie persists in the thankless task of trying to persuade voters that a vote for her isn’t identical to gifting the seat to George. In return George is nice to all those ‘Lib Dem stalwarts’ who are all ‘polite and friendly in the best Cornish tradition’. Not like those evil Corbyn supporters schooled by Momentum to spread havoc and confusion in secret training camps on Carn Brea.

Of course, ‘best Cornish tradition’ here means knowing their place and regularly returning people like George to Parliament. Strangely, for someone who stresses his local connections going back thousands of generations to the time the first living Cornish thing crawled out of the slime and demanded a pasty, he seems blissfully unaware that in Cornwall ‘polite and friendly’ on the doorstep translates into ‘two-faced and duplicitous’ in the polling booth. We can only hope.

A typical subversive idea from ‘marxist’
Labour

Meanwhile, Paul Farmer’s campaign for Labour is being fuelled by ‘people-powered effort’. None of that fossil-fuel power for Paul who’s stressing his green credentials even as his leader backs off from the urgent action necessary to combat climate chaos under pressure from the GMB. Labour certainly exudes confidence but how far it spills out into the mean streets of Camborne and Redruth is quite another matter.

We also have Karen La Borde for the Greens, who’s asking us to vote with our hearts. And face up to the consequences for the future of our actions in the present. Good luck with that one, Karen. And then there’s Paul Holmes for the Liberals, who’s yet been spotted on the hustings.

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Tactical voting: an idiot’s guide

In our antiquated voting system voters are often urged, to the point of frantic hysteria, to vote for candidate B in order to stop candidate C even though we actually prefer candidate A. When we discover that our vote made precious little difference and candidate C still got in, or that in fact candidate A actually did better than candidate B we become annoyed and disillusioned.

It would be far simpler to have a properly representative voting system. But we haven’t. Normally I’d be extremely sceptical about tactical voting, which is a conservative strategy employed by the mainstream parties to bolster the status quo. However, in this election, which ought to be about putting in place the urgent measures needed to slow down climate chaos and reform the sclerotic UKanian state structures, there might be occasions when tactical voting against the Conservatives would be worth it. Tactical voting against Labour and Lib Dems is simple – just vote Conservative.

The key to effective tactical voting is knowledge. Three things are essential.

1. Don’t believe anything the political parties or tactical voting sites that support particular parties or causes tell you. They will lie through their teeth to convince you they are in second place and poised to defeat the incumbent. The Lib Dems are particularly prone to this.
2. Consult reliable polling data on the situation in your constituency. In the past this was difficult. But now, with multilevel regression models such as that of YouGov at the last election it’s possible to track the polling on a day to day basis. If things look close (say within 5%) it might be worth voting tactically. If they’re not then don’t bother.
3. Wait. The closer you get to polling day the more reliable will be the polling and the better chance you have to make your vote count. Postal voting has actually reduced the effectiveness of tactical voting. If you think you’re ‘tactically’ voting two weeks before the poll you’re deluding yourself and missing any late swing.

Finally, around 350-400 seats are entirely predictable. There is absolutely no point in voting tactically in these. But in Cornwall we have more marginals than the norm. At present tactical voting might be a rational option in St Ives, Camborne-Redruth and North Cornwall and perhaps Truro & Falmouth. But this may well change. Come back here for updates.

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Parallel universe at Camborne-Redruth

This week the Brexit Party had to drop a candidate who claimed that she was from the star Sirius, believed in elves, fairies and unicorns and that aliens were working with governments across the world. This was too much even by the standards of the Brexit Party. But it’s the tip of the iceberg. A growing sense of complete unreality seems to pervade the early days of this election.

Even putting aside the most inept and chaotic start to an election campaign by the Tories since, … err last time, we can find examples everywhere we look.

Take Camborne-Redruth. Here belief has to be suspended entirely when endangering your mental health by consulting the Facebook pages of local candidates. Last weekend the Liberal Democrats’ Florence, or Flossy, MacDonald was out and about at Mount Hawke. She met ‘an incredible number of people voting Lib Dem’. On Monday it was the turn of Porthtowan, where she was ‘overwhelmed by the level of support’ and the ‘incredible response’, with ‘so many people voting Lib Dem to stop the Brexit chaos’. It was a ‘magical evening’.

Full marks for breathless enthusiasm but Flossy looks in danger of peaking too soon and running out of hyperbole even before the nominations are in. I would caution her to calm down a bit, employ fewer exclamation marks and consider whether anyone called Flossy has ever been elected to Parliament. The omens are not good.

The Lib Dems in Camborne-Redruth only need another 20,122 votes to topple Farmer George from his seat. You’ll be more likely to spot a unicorn flying over Carn Brea.

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At the starting post: what the polls predict for Cornwall

As the election runners and riders wait nervously at the starting post, it’s a convenient time to look at what the pollsters are saying. Electoral Calculus is a respected site which bases its predictions on the previous few weeks of opinion polls.

At present it’s suggesting there will be two Lib Dem gains in Cornwall – at St Ives and North Cornwall – although its own figures actually suggest Scott Mann will narrowly squeak back in North Cornwall. It also predicts that in three of the four seats where Labour pushed the Lib Dems into third place in 2017, the Lib Dems will recover second place. The prediction is that Labour’s vote will halve in Camborne-Redruth, Truro, St Austell and South East Cornwall to restore the situation of 2015.

Chances of winning

	Con	Labr	Lib Dem
St Ives	31%	0%	68%
Camborne-Redruth	69%	14%	13%
Truro-Falmouth	59%	10%	29%
St Austell-Newquay	67%	4%	26%
North Cornwall	50%	0%	49%
South East Cornwall	74%	2%	22%

But what’s the track record of Electoral Calculus? Martin Baxter, its founder, is honest enough to admit it hasn’t been great, although it did accurately predict the Tory clean sweep in Cornwall in 2017. Over the entire political landscape of the UK, in the last three elections it got between 64 and 80 seats wrong out of a total of 650. As about 400 seats are safe and rarely change hands, this isn’t that much better than relying on Granny’s tea leaves.

In each of those three elections, the polls overestimated the Lib Dem vote, whereas Labour’s was underestimated in both 2010 and 2017. The Tory vote was slightly overestimated in 2010 and 2017 but greatly underestimated in 2015.

Interestingly, 2015 was the year when Ukip (remember them?) did well, winning 13% of the vote overall. This time around Electoral Calculus is predicting 11% for the Brexit Party. The presence of this party clearly adds more uncertainty to the outcome.

Allowing for the inherent biases in the polling, St Ives still looks a good prospect for the Lib Dems at present, but we should probably move north Cornwall into the Tory camp. Ladbrokes are making the Tories clear odds-on favourites in North Cornwall and this looks the better bet. Meanwhile, Labour and the Lib Dems are neatly splitting the non-Tory vote in Truro and St Austell, making them comfortable for the Tories. Moreover, the Lib Dems are stealing back enough votes in Camborne-Redruth to make George Eustice sleep more soundly at night. At least for the present.

(Or maybe he won’t as the Electoral Calculus predictions also show an across the board drop in the Conservative vote of around 8-10%. The Tories’ apparent strength in the polls is largely a function of a dysfunctional and disproportional electoral system.)

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Final line-up in Camborne & Redruth confirmed: the Geoffs versus George

We now know the 99% certain line-up for Camborne & Redruth a few hours before nominations close for the general election. After several days of prevarication the Liberal Democrats finally revealed their candidate as Geoff Williams. As predicted here, Illogan-based Geoff was chosen, according to the Lib Dems, at a ‘packed’ meeting. Might have been a small room though. Geoff was a founder-member of the Lib Dems in the 1980s and is described as a ‘veteran’ local politician, having been around since the time of Gladstone.

Farmer/PR man and sitting MP George Eustice, won’t lose many nights sleep over the Lib Dems. Now buoyed up by escaping a spell in prison, George will be even less worried by the Greens’ announcement that their candidate is strangely also called Geoff. Coincidentally, Geoff Garbett (68), who contested the constituency in 2015, is, like the other Geoff, also a retired teacher and lecturer. Even more uncannily, he’s also a founder member of his party in the ‘south west’. And, stretching the bounds of credibility to their utmost, he’s also a parish councillor.

The Greens, having, as implied here last week, eventually decided not to stand in St Ives, will be trusting local Lib Dems might do the decent thing and return the favour. Fat chance. So far Liberal Democrats have displayed not a glimmer of any willingness to reciprocate in Cornwall and indulge in so-called ‘progressive’ allying. They’re sticking to their tried and tested Gilbert and Sullivanesque presumption that anyone who isn’t a little Conservative must be a little Lib Dem. The Greens’ less than startling performance in the local elections is unlikely to alter that.

And sadly, there’s no MK candidate. For a few moments last weekend MK considered standing in St Austell & Newquay and Camborne-Redruth. But instead the party has decided to save its money and go into hibernation for four years. Knackered by the locals, they’ve been wrong-footed by the TMaybot’s evil plan to call a general election merely in order to undermine the chances of Cornish nationalism for another generation. It remains to be seen whether Cornwall will survive this latest blow.

Not that, for the Tories, there can be any Cornish nationalism of course, as there’s no Cornish nation. And if some people, like the Council of Europe, say there is, then they’re European and automatically wrong and deluded and, well, just foreign and can’t be believed. So, you Cornish oafs and mugwumps, clear the road and leave ‘our country’ safe from the separatists and fit for foxhunters, offshore investors, hedge funds, speculative developers and the super-rich.

P.S. There’s also a Labour candidate called Graham.

Nightmare turns out to be true. Pundit flees public wrath.

Phew, just woke up from a horrible nightmare. Dreamt that the polling companies had got things totally screwed up. Instead of the hung parliament everyone predicted, with Labour and Tories neck and neck, there was somehow a Tory lead of 6%. In the dream a wasted landscape was disgorging thousands of blue zombie neoliberals, shuffling through endless acres of supermarkets and housing estates, waving English flags and forcing people into food banks with cattle prods.

Aaaaaaaargh!!!

What the hell happened? Confounding every single pollster, the Tories are on course for a majority after all. We can look forward to enjoying another five years of smarmy David Cameron preening himself and crossing the Amazon Tamar for the occasional holiday in Kensington by the Sea. While the sinister George Osborne dons his hard hat and visits all the building sites. And for the first time since the 1930s all Cornish seats have gone Conservative. The future is blue. Look on the work of the great voting public and despair.

For the sake of posterity I suppose I’ll have to record the results. Here they are.

Camborne & Redruth

George Eustice (Conservative)	18,452	40.2%
Michael Foster (Labour)	11,448	25.0%
Bob Smith (Ukip)	6,776	14.8%
Julia Goldsworthy (Lib Dem)	5,687	12.4%
Geoff Garbett (Green)	2,608	5.7%
Loveday Jenkin (MK)	897	2.0%
turnout	68.5%

North Cornwall

Scott Mann (Conservative)	21,689	45.0%
Dan Rogerson (Lib Dem)	15,068	31.2%
Julie Lingard (Ukip)	6,121	12.7%
John Whitby (Labour)	2,621	5.4%
Amanda Pennington (Green)	2,063	4.3%
Jeff Jefferies (MK)	631	1.3%
John Allman (Independent)	52	0.1%
turnout	71.8%

St Austell & Newquay

Steve Double (Conservative)	20,250	40.2%
Stephen Gilbert (Lib Dem)	12,077	24.0%
David Mathews (Ukip)	8,503	16.9%
Deborah Hopkins (Labour)	5,150	10.2%
Steve Slade (Green)	2,318	4.6%
Dick Cole (MK)	2,063	4.1%
turnout	65.7%

St Ives

Derek Thomas (Conservative)	18,491	38.3%
Andrew George (Lib Dem)	16,022	33.2%
Graham Calderwood (Ukip)	5,720	11.8%
Cornelius Olivier (Labour)	4,510	9.3%
Tim Andrewes (Green)	3,051	6.3%
Rob Simmons (MK)	518	1.1%
turnout	73.7%

South East Cornwall

Sheryll Murray (Conservative)	25,516	50.5%
Phil Hutty (Lib Dem)	8,521	16.9%
Bradley Monk (Ukip)	7,698	15.2%
Declan Lloyd (Labour)	4,692	9.3%
Martin Corney (Green)	2,718	5.4%
Andrew Long (MK)	1,003	2.0%
George Trubody (Independent)	350	0.7%
turnout	71.1%

Truro & Falmouth

Sarah Newton (Conservative)	22,681	44.0%
Simon Rix (Lib Dem)	8,681	16.8%
Stuart Roden (Labour)	7,814	15.2%
John Hyslop (Ukip)	5,967	11.6%
Karen Westbrook (Green)	4,483	8.7%
Loic Rich (Independent)	792	1.5%
Stephen Richardson (MK)	563	1.0%
Rik Evans (NHAP)	526	1.0%
Stan Guffogg (POP)	37	0.1%
turnout	70.0%

So how do we explain this victory for zombie politics? Clearly, either a good number of Tory voters were lying through their teeth to the pollsters, or there was a very late (as in picking up the pencil in the polling booth and changing your mind late) swing to Cameron and Co. It’s easy to come up with a list of possible explanations. Pick from the following. Enough people have been insulated from the aftermath of the 2008 crash. Pensions and incomes for the elderly (who vote) have held up. The media has kindly disseminated the Tories’ magical and mendacious narrative of creating economic ‘success’ while Labour left us ‘with no money’. Those who endure the brunt of austerity policies don’t tend to vote. The population is becoming more politically illiterate and can’t tell s**t from sugar.

The Tories’ success is also greatly aided by a rigged voting system that allows expats on the run in Spain to vote for 15 years but makes it more difficult for students, tenants, the mobile and dispossessed to register in the UK. And of course, you can win a majority of seats with the votes of just 24.1% of the registered electors. Or put it another way. The Tories win 36.5% of the vote and get 330 or so seats while Ukip gets 12.5% and just one. There’s something a trifle unfair about this but for the life of me I can’t quite put my finger on it.

So what can we look forward to? Manifestly, for the moment we’re locked in a neoliberal future. That was always going to happen, as a stunning 87.5% voted to continue the politics of austerity. Whatever cuts the Tories eventually make will impact on the poorer and more vulnerable just as they did during the last parliament, while their chums in the City and financial sector can look forward to big handouts and tax cuts to come.

Local government will continue to disintegrate, while public services and chunks of the NHS are sold off to the first spiv or con-artist who happens to show up with a wad of cash. The Equal Constituencies Act will become law, entailing a complete re-shuffling of parliamentary seats every five years and consolidating the Tories’ hold on the levers of government, as they fasten their suckers more firmly on us. The planet will go on frying as little real effort is made to decarbonise energy. Indeed, expect the continuation of massive subsidies for fossil fuel companies as we stick our collective ostrich heads deeper in the sand.

The prospects for Cornwall over the next five years look dismal. Look forward to the ongoing de-Cornishization of our communities as developers celebrate the return of the Tories and get the green light to run rampant over our land. The affordability crisis will worsen as another wave of second home owners greedily cast their eyes west to England’s first colony. Anticipate the crumbling of local services and an increasing gulf between lifestyle Cornwall and lifestruggle Cornwall. Count on the promise of never-ending population growth as the unstated Con/Lab/Lib promise of a million people in Cornwall by the end of the century moves closer to fruition. Contemplate the growing congestion as our towns become monuments to the slash and burn neoliberal consumerist vision. Watch zombie politics tighten its grip on our little, pumped-up, local council elite, myopic, mistaken and misled by assorted bureaucrats and ‘opinion-formers’ in hock to the parasites who’re plundering our land.

So how wrong were my predictions? Clearly, I was a gullible idiot to believe in the polls. I didn’t think they could all be so wrong, but they were. In particular, the hints of a last-minute swing to the Lib Dems in the polls turned out to be in fact a last minute swing to the Tories. Although, as it’s become so difficult to tell them apart, you can surely cut me some rope here, folks.

If we look more closely at my predictions earlier this week and compare them with the actual results we can see that I badly underestimated the Tory vote in Cornwall across the board by 6-10% and overstated the Lib Dems by 4-8%. On the other hand my predictions for Labour, Ukip and the Greens weren’t that far out at all and I was bang on the MK share, with the sole exception of St Austell, where I was just 1% out. Moreover, I got the order of the top four candidates correct in South East, Truro and St Austell and was almost right in Camborne-Redruth. In Truro & Falmouth my predicted scores were right for six of the nine candidates, which can’t be bad. My biggest failure however was in not seeing the Tory clean sweep and predicting the Fib Dems would hold on to two seats.

But let’s not waste any tears on them as they brought their downfall entirely on themselves. They should now do the decent thing in Cornwall, dissolve their party and get out of the road. Moreover, their incompetence over the past few decades must take some share of the blame for allowing the toxic English nationalist Ukip to gain a foothold in Cornwall.

Meanwhile, the Greens’ surge came and went three or four months too soon. As for MK, although their vote held up from last time in the face of a squeeze from five other parties and the usual BBC ban, is it not time to rethink the strategy of contesting parliamentary elections and throwing away £3,000 every five years? Now the focus must be the Cornwall Council elections in 2017. The work of stopping people wasting another vote on the Lib Dems, Labour or Ukip becomes the urgent task. More imagination and involvement in bottom-up local campaigning is likely to be the key.

Although in England the politics of fear, scaremongering and greed have triumphed, there are some silver linings to this train crash. The Scots have shown us that the politics of hope are always possible. Turnout rose by up to 10% in Scotland but was fairly static in England (although rising slightly across Cornwall). Levels of disaffection and disillusion remain at record levels. The trick is to turn those disillusioned non-voters into voters for change. The SNP has done this; it should not be impossible here. Labour and the Liberal Democrats’ pathetic caving in to Tory bullying when they joined in demonising and isolating the SNP has backfired very badly. Even had Labour held on to its Scottish seats it wouldn’t have prevented a Tory majority, so it’s lucky for the Scots that they proved immune to that particular canard.

The danger now is that the Tories will cynically find some way to remove the Scottish MPs from Westminster. That, plus the Equal Constituencies Act and a dysfunctional voting system, will then cement them in place and make it very difficult to see how they will ever be shifted by a politically torpid and dumbed down English electorate. More hopefully, the election has driven another nail into the coffin of tactical voting. All those people in Cornwall who at the last moment voted ‘with their head’ but now see it had zero effect on the outcome should hang those heads in shame. Until we resist the siren call of tactical voting we will never rid ourselves of this antiquated electoral system and join the vast majority of more enlightened democracies elsewhere in Europe.

Finally, there’s the question of legitimacy. As the Tories gloat their way back to their Westminster sinecures and set about allowing their mates to go on plundering the planet, they’ll be doing it with the active support of less than a quarter of the British people. Is this right? Is it fair? Is it proper?