From Westwealas to West Sussex: the election in retrospect

Thankfully the election of illusions is over and we can settle down to another five wasted years of political incompetence from the English ruling class. Looking at the election results Cornwall has now converged with rural south-east England, with a very large block of Tory voters and Labour and the Lib Dems trailing far behind vying for second place. In fact, politically Cornwall now resembles West Sussex. This embarrassing outcome was probably inevitable ever since local government in Cornwall adopted its high population growth strategy in the 1970s. Their plan to suburbanise Cornwall has worked.

The Conservative vote is now at a record high at over 54%. The next best performance was in 1979 and then then it fell (just) short of 50%.

Yet Cornwall still managed to differ from southern England in one way. Virtually everywhere east of the Tamar the Liberal Democrat vote rose. In Cornwall it fell again, to a record low. Are the Lib Dems paying the price for the failures of the Lib Dem/indie run Cornwall Council in the same way that northern English voters have punished Labour in Labour-led council areas?

Cornwall may still be exceptional, but this is an exception that is now the diametric opposite of the (albeit exaggerated) radical tradition of the late 1800s and early 1900s. In the meantime, as the old political parties revert to the 1950s and resolutely ignore the need for fundamental and far-reaching reforms, it’s imperative that the Green Party, MK and others begin to discuss an agreement in advance of the elections to a truncated Cornwall Council in 2021. The luxury of continuing to split the progressive vote is madness in the current climate.

Cornish election results 2019

St Ives

Derek ThomasConservative25,36549.3%
Andrew GeorgeLiberal Democrat21,08141.0%
Alana BatesLabour3,5536.9%
Ian FlindallGreen9541.9%
Robert SmithLiberal3140.6%
John HarrisThe Common People1320.3%

Camborne-Redruth-Hayle

George EusticeConservative26,764 53.1%
Paul FarmerLabour18,06435.9%
Florence MacDonaldLiberal Democrat3,5047.0%
Karen La BordeGreen1,3592.7%
Paul HolmesLiberal6761.3%

Truro & Falmouth

Cherilyn MackroryConservative27,23746.0%
Jenn ForbesLabour22,67638.3%
Ruth GripperLiberal Democrat7,15012.1%
Tom ScottGreen1,7142.9%
Paul NicholsonLiberal4130.7%

St Austell & Newquay

Steve DoubleConservative31,27356.1%
Felicity OwenLabour14,74726.4%
Tim StylesLiberal Democrat5,86110.5%
Dick ColeMK1,6603.0%
Collin HarkerGreen1,6092.9%
Richard ByrneLiberal6261.1%

North Cornwall

Scott MannConservative 30,671 59.4%
Danny ChambersLiberal Democrat 15,919 30.8%
Joy BassettLabour 4,516 8.7%
Elmars LiepinsLiberal 572 1.1%

South East Cornwall

Sheryll MurrayConservative31,80759.3%
Gareth DerrickLabour10,83620.2%
Colin MartinLiberal Democrat8,65016.1%
Martha GreenGreen1,4932.8%
Jay LathamLiberal8691.6%

The election of illusions

This has been an election largely fought in an unreal parallel universe, a fantasy land of nostalgia, fond illusions and political sleight of hand.

Illusion #1 is the conceit that somehow voting in the Tories, or anyone else for that matter, will ‘get Brexit done’. It won’t. Brexit is not an event; it’s a process. It’s a show that’s will run. And run. And run. As interminable trade negotiations drag on and the UK again teeters on the brink of a no-deal brexit, even leave voters may wake up to that. Or more likely not.

Illusion #2 is that this is some sort of old-fashioned exercise in democracy. It’s not. This has been the first really effective post-truth election in Britain, with the Tories in particular ruthlessly manipulating the media (not that difficult in the case of the BBC I admit.) Fake stories, doctored videos, false tweets, misleading ads, outright lies. All’s fair in their quest to buy votes and keep the rusting old wreck on the road for a few years more. Although hardly enthused, voters take refuge in the familiar as they vote back the most incompetent ruling class in British history, kings and queens of the royal cock-up.

Illusion #3 is that this is basically an election just like previous ones. It’s not. This illusion is deeply entrenched in the media and lapped up by the sheepocracy being herded, trance-like, to the polls. But occasionally, despite the soothing distractions and noise of the media, people can sense something looming just out of sight. Like a half-forgotten nightmare or a fleeting ghostly presence glimpsed out of the corner of the eye, there lurks the oncoming climate emergency.

Rather ironically, storms are set to batter the UK just as the final votes are being cast this evening. Meanwhile, global politicians meeting in Madrid carry on failing to take the urgent action necessary to reduce carbon emissions and stave off planetary disaster. All the grand promises of £billions for the NHS or other infrastructure, all the hopes for continuing profit-making as another round of carbon-capitalism is ‘unleashed’, all the good intentions to build a better society, all these will inevitably founder on the rocks of the colossal sums required to cope with the consequences of climate breakdown. Every day we go on blithely spewing out carbon is another day lost.

This election shouldn’t have been about who gets brexit done or who patches up the NHS. In a rational or sane world, it would have been first and foremost about who takes the climate emergency seriously and who hasn’t got a clue. This is actually the election to lose. As the implications belatedly dawn, as the Arctic ice melts, as the weather gets ever more unpredictable, two things are likely to happen. Governments will be forced into radical and unpopular action, having complacently ignored the science for at least 20 years, and/or they’ll get the blame for an unravelling environment and overheating planet as they sit back and watch as nature takes its revenge on our greed.

Labour has at least woken up to the scale of the climate emergency but persists in fooling itself and others that action on climate change can be combined with expanding aviation or massive infrastructure schemes or more and more ‘growth’. It can’t. Instead, what’s required, and more so with every day that passes, is the precautionary principle. Declare a moratorium on all carbon-costly projects. Institute carbon rationing. Start to build a zero-growth society.

Why vote for more climate hypocrisy in this election of illusions? In the absence of an MK or extinction rebellion candidate I’ll be voting Green.

Tactical voting. Who to vote for in Cornwall

The second and final YouGov MRP poll provides no shocks but merely reiterates the conclusions of the static polling of the previous fortnight. There’s been a narrowing of the Tory lead, but too small to make any difference. Here’s the predicted vote. (Warning: there is a margin of error)

ConservativeLabourLib Demother
St Ives478414
Camborne-Redruth493975
Truro-Falmouth4638114
St Austell-Newquay5324185
North Cornwall548372
South East Cornwall5520205

In Cornwall the Tories are so far ahead in the eastern three constituencies that there’s no point at all there in voting ‘tactically’. The battle is for second place, with an eye on the next election.

With a 10% lead in Camborne-Redruth, George Eustice also looks safely beyond the margin of polling error. Even if all those intending to vote Lib Dem switched to Labour’s Paul Farmer, he’ll still lose. So don’t bother voting ‘tactically’ there either.

The gap in St Ives has hardly shifted since the Tories’ Derek Thomas established a lead two or three weeks ago when the Brexit Party ran away. The polls are suggesting an easier win for the Tories than in 2017. Nonetheless, the Conservative lead is still within the margin of error so it’s worth considering a Lib Dem vote here.

A second place where tactical voting is arguably worth even more serious consideration is Truro and Falmouth. Although the Tory lead here is wider than in St Ives, according to the polls it’s narrowing, and relatively quickly. Moreover, there’s still a residual Lib Dem vote here for Labour’s Jenn Forbes to sweep up.

If Lib Dems want to stop the Tory in Truro and Falmouth they must call for a Labour vote. In return Labour could call for a Lib Dem vote in St Ives if they’re really serious about getting rid of  Thomas. But are they?

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Does Steve Double have a double?

Steve Double is the Conservative MP for St Austell and Newquay. Steve’s a bit of an enigma. Earlier this year he was an enthusiastic no-deal brexiteer who thought May’s deal was a ‘betrayal’. But now Steve’s a loyal supporter of Johnson’s deal.

Steve has ‘consistently voted for a reduction of spending on welfare benefits’ but apparently there’s another altogether kindlier Steve who’s ‘compassionate and liberal-minded’, at least according to his own twitter account.

Then we have the Steve who ‘consistently voted for a stricter asylum system’. This Steve mustn’t be confused with the Steve who works closely with a campaign to help refugees settle in Britain and promotes humanitarian responses to immigration.

One Steve said brexit was ‘an opportunity for the UK to recover some of its diluted heritage’; the other Steve stated ‘Britain is more multi-cultural than ever before and this is something to be proud of’. (These two statements were made at the same meeting!)

Meet the Steve who spurns no opportunity to wrap himself in the St Piran’s flag. This must be a different Steve from the one who’s keen to promote the Great South West.

Steve and others at first meeting of Great South West parliamentary group

One Steve thinks it’s ‘time to truly decentralise Britain.’ This can’t be the same Steve who has ‘almost always voted against transferring more powers to the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly or to local councils’, can it?

Then there’s the Steve who was horrified at the weak jokes tweeted by Lib Dem candidate Danny Chambers in North Cornwall. That Steve wasn’t at all shocked by the other Steve, who happily retweeted doctored Tory videos of an interview with Labour’s Keir Starmer at the beginning of this election campaign.

The only explanation has to be the existence of two Steve Doubles. This explains how he has found the time since February 2018 to take on another half-time job in addition to his parliamentary duties. Not to mention tweeting to all and sundry. Either that or he’s an alien or robot that doesn’t need to sleep.

Neither Steve seems to worry over-much about the climate emergency

The Steve, it’s a bit unclear which one it is, that describes himself as a ‘Christian Cornish Conservative’, has been spending three days of his time since February 2018 as a ‘policy advisor’ to the Good Faith Partnership (GFP). It’s not clear where its funding comes from, but this looks like a bona-fide faith-based charity that works to encourage humanitarian responses to immigration, welcomes resettled refugees, wishes to improve financial inclusion and publicise the challenges Christians face in the Middle East. Although it’s not exactly clear who’s advising whom. While Steve says he’s a ‘policy advisor’ to the GFP, the GFP claims it’s placed advisors with Steve and two other parliamentarians.

Advice doesn’t come free. For this Steve is paid £20,500 a year, not to mention the £500 the GFP handed over to help pay for Steve’s trip to Brussels in November 2018 to discuss UK immigration policy after brexit. Since June this year the number of days Steve has been doing this has been cut from three days a week to two and a half, although the daily rate rose from £133 to £144. This is, of course, in addition to his £79,000 annual MP’s salary.

Amazing how one man can find time to do both these jobs, although one might have thought providing policy advice couldn’t possibly take up three whole days a week. You’d think a meeting every month or so would be quite sufficient.

However does he fit it all in? There’s only one possible explanation. Sorry to break the news to the voters of St Austell and Newquay but there just has to be two Steve Doubles.

which Steve is this?

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Labour stalls: Tories eye up landslide

Last weekend’s polls shows the Labour ‘surge’, or more accurately ‘creep’, stalling, or even falling back a little. Meanwhile, the Johnson juggernaut continues to inch its way upwards. This close to the election it looks like curtains for Corbyn, who seems to have become strangely subdued over the past few days as his lieutenants begin to manoeuvre to avoid the oncoming blame.

based on an aggregate of seven polling companies

The rock-solid block of support for the Tories from the elderly and the uneducated, the complacent and the couldn’t care less looks immoveable. They’ve been promised the biggest illusion of all in this election of illusions – a post-brexit nirvana of everlasting prosperity amidst a return to the 1950s – and by God they’re determined to get it.

but only if coming a distant 3rd is defined as ‘winning here’

Labour has been unable to squeeze the Liberal Democrats to the same extent as they did in 2017 or as clinically as the Tories disposed with the threat of Farage’s Brexit party. Their only hope now is massive tactical voting. But this looks increasingly unlikely as Lib Dem and Labour tribalists run amok confusing voters for short-term party gain. The other is a dramatic, last-minute announcement by Jeremy that he’ll resign in the New Year if he wins the election. Come on, Jezza, your final act will be a heroic sacrifice for British socialism. Not too much to ask for, is it?

Here in Cornwall it’s looking more and more like a clean sweep for the Tories. The suspicious lack of constituency polling in this election makes it more difficult to predict, but the only place where a tactical vote looks possibly worth it is St Ives. Anywhere else, it won’t make any difference. So don’t bother.

That advice might change after the YouGov MRP prediction is belatedly released late tomorrow. I’ll update on Wednesday.

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The mystery of the missing polling data

In 2017 the most accurate prediction for the election came from YouGov’s MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) model. This, based on a massive set of ongoing interviews, was updated daily in the week or ten days before polling day and indicated a gradually closing gap between Tories and Labour.

This time around YouGov produced its first estimate on November 27th, eleven days ago. This showed a very healthy Tory lead. Since then, they’ve chosen to remain silent, unlike last time. YouGov now says it will publish its second, and presumably final, prediction at 10pm on Tuesday.

Why is this of more than passing interest to psephological anoraks like myself? Because of tactical voting.

In Britain we have 450 seats that are safe and, outside by-elections, will very rarely change hands. In those places you could vote for Lord Buckethead, spoil your paper, let the dog eat your postal vote or not bother at all, knowing that you’ll still be lumbered with a Tory or Labour MP. The other 200 seats could potentially change hands. However, it’s not easy to predict which will switch.

Tactical voting is a basically conservative strategy that merely delays the long overdue junking of a voting system designed for a two-party system that’s still being used in a multi-party system. However, until that reform arrives, if ever, we’re stuck with the necessity of voting tactically in some seats.

But which seats? Here, knowledge is the key. It’s no good relying on the simplistic assumption that just because a party came close last time, they will this time. Even worse, we can’t believe a word the parties themselves actually tell us. So we need polling data – and preferably data at a constituency level.

This is what YouGov’s MRP polling provided in 2017, when it regularly updated its findings on a daily basis. Knowing which way the trends were moving helped us more easily make a sensible and measured decision on whether to vote tactically and who for.

Take the last election in Camborne-Redruth. Here’s what the YouGov poll was predicting, updated every other day and appearing on this website. In the final week of the campaign Labour was steadily closing the gap – by 7 points – and almost stole the seat.

But this time, YouGov’s decision not to update their poll means there’s no way of knowing whether voters are swinging to Labour in this constituency more or less than elsewhere and whether Labour’s Paul Farmer is in with a realistic shot of taking the seat. Therefore, potential tactical voters like myself are unable to make a proper decision. I shall therefore stick with my preferred choice and not waste it on a tactical vote.

We could of course rely on the regular snapshot polls. However, these are not at constituency level and it’s difficult to extrapolate trends from polls that all use slightly different methodologies. The absence of the YouGov data means that in this election we have much less reliable information on which to base our decision.

Polls can of course influence voting behaviour as much as reflect it. The absence of regular YouGov updates last week when it appears Labour was (slowly) closing the gap, operated to dampen any surge that may have been occurring under the radar.

I don’t usually buy into conspiracy theories that claim opinion polls are designed to help the Tories. Yes, the usual polls underestimated the Labour vote in 2017 by almost 6%. But in 2015 they underestimated the Conservative vote by 4%. Opinion polling has become less accurate as voter volatility has increased.

But I cannot understand why YouGov has this time refused to release its data. Who does this benefit? Clearly, if information on trends is not out there, then any movement to Labour becomes less certain. People become confused on whether it’s best to vote tactically for Labour or for the Lib Dems or for others. Moreover, they are more likely to rely on the inaccurate and false findings peddled by the political parties. And the Tories therefore breath much more easily.

In addition, by 10pm on Tuesday at least one in five voters will have already voted by post, so news of any swing towards Labour that late will have absolutely no effect. Convenient, to say the least.

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