St Ives: Coalition victory assured

Two parallel elections take place tomorrow in Cornwall’s most westerly seat. The first is to elect the MP. Will Andrew George be returned for the fifth time? Or will it will be second time lucky for his Tory opponent Derek Thomas? And then there’s the race for third place. The Greens have made this one of their top ten targets and are pushing hard. A few years ago Ukip were doing relatively well in west Cornwall although, as they’ve hunkered down in the far east of England, their support in Cornwall has, relatively, been sliding. And then there’s Labour, which as recently as the 1980s was contesting second place here with the Lib Dems. Those days are gone but a traditional Labour vote still lurks in this constituency, unlike in east Cornwall.

The Greens’ challenge is key to Andrew George’s survival. He must be more than a little peeved as his record is the most progressive of the Cornish Lib Dem MPs, which is not saying a lot admittedly. He opposed the bedroom tax and selling off the forests; he worked with Green MP Caroline Lucas to introduce an NHS Bill and he’s generally on the side of animals, atheists and angels. Andrew might feel he least deserves a serious Green challenge. But if you live by the sword of an antiquated disproportional voting system then you must die by it.

Andrew George – getting worried?

The Greens’ Tim Andrewes is fending off the inevitable Lib Dem squeeze and his success in holding their vote together is key to the outcome. The Greens are calling for people to ‘vote for what you believe in’ and ‘vote positively’. They might also remind people what a certain Nick Clegg said back in 2010 – ‘Vote with your heart; vote for the values and the policies you believe’. The Greens are also appealing to those ‘tired of the same old parties’ who aren’t living up to their responsibility for the planet. With this clearly including the Liberal Democrats, there are signs that Andrew George might be getting worried.

Is the ‘Green surge’ in St Ives a figment of a fevered imagination?

He also has to resist a less organised effort to siphon off voters on his Cornish flank. Again, he’s been the only Cornish MP to stand up consistently against second homes and oppose the ongoing colonisation of our land and at least he abstained on the Tory/Lib Dem plan to introduce a Devonwall constituency. His presence has succeeded in reducing MK support in the constituency to a rump. But the voting system serves to conceal a potentially much larger pool of support for MK and its active local candidate Rob Simmons. It’s probably fair to say that MK wouldn’t exactly be weeping with sorrow if Andrew George lost, as the longer he stays on, the longer they’re marginalised electorally.

Then there’s Labour. Cornelius Olivier, yet another local candidate, began with a burst of energy, trying to capitalise on the second homes issue, although a difficult area on which to confront Andrew George convincingly. This has since seemed to falter and his presence on social media has tailed off. It’s likely that Labour voters may be more prone than others to fall for the tactical voting ploy now being played to the hilt by the Lib Dems.

Derek Thomas – the Sarah Newton of St Ives?

Of course, the Tories could also lose votes to their right – to Graham Calderwood, who’s standing for Ukip. At one stage Derek Thomas, whose public statements are otherwise fairly anodyne and uncontroversial, was posting on social media that a vote for Ukip was a vote for the SNP. He didn’t care to specify the convoluted logic behind that particular nonsense. Thomas’s apolitical politics, taking the Sarah Newton route to Parliament, may not prove that attractive to those toying with voting Ukip however, who may be looking for more red meat.

It will be close, but on the basis of his local record, plus the evidence that sitting Lib Dem MPs are holding on to their vote share much better than others and the possibility of a late swing to the Lib Dems as people fall (yet again – will they ever learn?) for the tactical voting trick, I reckon he’ll sneak it. St Ives will stick with him rather than a relatively unknown Tory who’s reputedly a creationist. Should anyone who thinks the earth is younger than farming be allowed anywhere near the Commons?

Andrew George hasn’t been helped by his leader Nick Clegg and his clear cosying up to the Tories over the last few weeks. When Andrew claimed that ‘I am sure my party would not go for it’ (another coalition with the Tories), he was immediately slapped down by Clegg, whose comments on the SNP and reliance on Tory voters in Sheffield mean he’s more than prepared to go for it again.

So what will Andrew do when the inevitable Tory/Lib Dem coalition emerges from the horse-trading? It could have been so different. If only Andrew had taken one of those many opportunities to resign the Lib Dem whip and build up a base as an outspoken, environmentally aware, Cornish independent MP, he could have made his mark in Cornish history. If he loses this time, he’ll be just a footnote. What a pity.

Postscript As I write this, I’m informed that two Green Party acquaintances in St Ives have decided to vote for Andrew to stop the Tory. How many more times? But I’ll tweak my forecast to give him another percentage point. Perhaps it’ll turn out to be less close than I thought.

1. George (LD)	38%
2. Thomas (Con)	34%
3. Calderwood (Ukip)	10%
4. Andrewes (GP)	8%
5. Olivier (Lab)	8%
6. Simmons (MK)	2%

Camborne & Redruth: Coalition set to retain seat

The old Falmouth-Camborne seat was a three-way marginal from the 1990s to 2005. Yet, like the majority of the other Cornish seats, the new Camborne & Redruth seat is looking a safe bet for the Tories this year with a ragtag of competitors struggling to win second place and with their eye on the election after next.

Julia Goldsworthy was once Lib Dem MP here. Ah, those were the days, the days before the expenses scandal, the financial crash caused by having too many nurses and teachers, or the failed austerity policies of the Tory/Lib Dem Government. She’ll now be lucky to get third place as the latest poll in this constituency puts her behind Ukip. As Lib Dem activity in the constituency has withered away, so have Julia’s poll ratings. Those who voted for her last time to keep the Tory out have now deserted in droves and she’s down to a pathetic 13 or 14% in the polls, an astonishing 24% drop on the Lib Dem score in 2010.

It’s unlikely she’ll actually do that badly, but a toxic hangover of Cleggite Liberal Toryism, the whiff of dodgy expenses claims that clings to her and an inability to shake off the tag of Westminster insider-ism dogs Julia. It looks like the end of the line for her, which induces a momentary and unaccountable spasm of pity as she’s actually one of the better Lib Dem candidates on offer in Cornwall.

Crowds wait at Camborne for Loveday Jenkin to speak

While Julia is doomed, former Lib Dem voters may as well cast around for other homes for their protest votes. Such as the Greens’ Geoff Garbett or MK’s Loveday Jenkin. The Greens were spotted canvassing a deserted Redruth Fore Street on bank holiday morning and will be looking to save their deposit. Loveday, scion of one of Cornish nationalism’s royal families, has fought a robust campaign and will be looking to add to the 775 votes she got in 2010.

Although a rather late choice following an earlier typical Ukip candidate cock-up disaster, Bob Smith of Ukip has been taking his band of angry middle-aged men leafleting and canvassing through the streets of Camborne-Redruth and especially the Ukip heartland of Hayle (what is it about Hayle?) Ukip was at one point tipped to be a serious contender here as it looked like a three-way marginal – Tory/Labour/Ukip – last summer. But the Ukip surge faded and he’ll do well now to retain third place.

Labour voters on way to poll at Redruth

However, for a properly angry middle-aged man, we have to turn to Labour. Labour has taken a novel approach this time, adopting as its candidate a self-made millionaire from London with a holiday home on the Helford who made his fortune advising media celebrities. Michael Foster claims he’s a new sort of politician. It’s difficult to see why. It can’t be, as he asserts, because he’s a businessman. The House of Commons and even the Labour Party is stuffed full of those these days. Indeed, he seems to be ‘new’ in the sense of being very old. Ross Poldark would have been very familiar with Foster’s political style as it reminds us of the eighteenth century when candidates would throw their money around to buy seats in pocket boroughs.

Pouring his own money into the constituency, Foster has been wildly outspending other candidates in the run-up to the election. But this new very old candidate has also injected some much-needed controversy. Sailing close to the wind when soliciting postal voting and making the usual outrageous statistical misrepresentations, Michael Foster was then accused of directing a volley of earthy cursing and threats against MK’s Loveday Jenkin at a hustings. The former Labour parliamentary candidate here, Jude Robinson, has loyally dismissed the allegations as not containing a word of truth and just being ‘silly stuff’.

Michael Foster tries to look sweet

While losing your rag with Loveday is something that’s hardly impossible, as anyone who has sat through a meeting with her might attest, the notion that she went to such inordinate and excessive lengths and concocted such an extensive and elaborate fabrication is just not credible. It might also be easier to believe it was all made up had there not previously been a series of bizarre episodes where Michael Foster’s anger management issues appear to have got the better of him. For example, he threw a mobile phone at Tory MP Sheryll Murray during a BBC TV debate, is reported to have blown up at the Greens’ Geoff Garbett at an earlier hustings, lost it when questioned by a student at a Tremough event, and has been alleged to have tried to take away Truro Ukip candidate John Hyslop’s phone on another occasion, almost provoking a fight.

Just make sure you don’t stand anywhere near him at the count when the results come out. As it doesn’t look as if this unsettling mix of eighteenth century political style and the usual bullying and arrogant bluster that seems to overcome the Labour party when in Cornwall will work. While all this nonsense goes on, PR lobbyist and strawberry farmer George Eustice calmly and quietly slides his way back into Parliament, courtesy of the very poor choice of candidates made by the old London-orientated parties.

Here’s my forecast.

1. Eustice (Con)	34%
2. Foster (Lab)	22%
3. Goldsworthy (Lib Dem)	20%
4. Smith (Ukip)	15%
5. Garbett (GP)	7%
6. Jenkin (MK)	2%

Truro & Falmouth: Coalition the popular choice

It’s fortunate that the Truro and Falmouth constituency has the highest number of voters with degrees and a university campus or two within its boundaries. For here, alone in Cornwall, or any other place in this benighted election for that matter, the issue of neoliberalism has become an explicit subject for the hustings. You won’t actually meet the word neoliberal in any of the Westminster parties’ manifestos though. And the Con/Lab/Lib gang don’t exactly flag up their commitment to neoliberalism on TV. But signed up to it they are.

Neoliberals don’t need to stand for election as such as the whole of the global elite has since the 1980s rushed to embrace this caustic, dangerous and delusional ideology. More than that, they’ve worked their socks off to promote a neoliberal economy and society. This is the ideology that daily informs us that the richer you are the more wealth you create, where the poor are responsible for the crises of financial capitalism and must pay the price, where every man and woman is an island, where the planet itself is ransacked in the interests of a tiny minority of the population. This is the disastrous show that all the Westminster parties (and Ukip) work desperately to keep on the road.

In Truro and Falmouth however, David has confronted Goliath. Four of the candidates have declared themselves openly against neoliberalism. Meanwhile four of the others are in favour of it or don’t understand what it’s about and the ninth is god knows where on this issue as well as most other issues.

All nine Truro and Falmouth candidates at a hustings

The most coherent case against neoliberalism is being put by Stan Guffogg of the Principles of Politics Party. Stan has come up with what must be the best line of any over the Cornish election campaign – ‘Think about stuff! Better than you do at the moment’. Of course, as the most principled candidate, he’s guaranteed to come last. Unfortunately, the other anti-neoliberal candidates will be struggling with the don’t know/don’t care candidate for fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth places. Which might hint that even the voters of Truro and Falmouth need to think a hell of a lot more than they do at present.

Nice. Transforming Truro into a neoliberal, consumerist, over-congested wasteland.

The other three sensible anti-neoliberals include Karen Westbrook, who’s injected some energy and enthusiasm into the Green campaign. She claims the Green surge, which peaked back in January everywhere else, has mysteriously reappeared in Falmouth. Proving that they’re more than two scats behind down there. Her facebook site has attracted some interest, plus predictable comments such as the person who believes ‘all the parties are manipulated from [a] higher controlling force.’ Calm down, dear; it’s called capitalism.

Rik Evans of the National Health Action Party is on record as opposing privatisation for at least ten years, from a time when the Labour Party was quite keen on it, Although they’re not now. Categorically not. In fact they’re going to ‘save’ the NHS. Honest, guv. Rik’s been keen to have a debate on the NHS with the sitting Tory MP Sarah Newton but she’s been a tad reluctant. A bit like David Cameron in his Oxfordshire seat. I wonder why.

Stephen Richardson of MK is the only explicitly socialist candidate standing. He has a tough task however as the previous MK candidate, later Tory, now Independent Loic Rich, mayor of Truro, is also standing. He’ll no doubt siphon away any potential MK votes, despite now thinking that a Cornish Assembly would be ‘a bit of a distraction’. From what is unclear. Loic is playing the Truro boy card and has a respectable poster presence in the town.

Moving to the neoliberal side, there’s John Hyslop of Ukip. He’s a consultant at Treliske who offers a ‘Cornish voice in Ukip’s NHS policy’ but also seems to think making ‘St George’s Day a bank holiday’ is of relevance to us in Cornwall. Though confused, he seems civilised enough. More that is than some of the thoughtful and well reasoned commentators on his facebook page, such as ‘we cannot let this fascist dictator Sturgeon rule our country!!!’ with the mandatory three exclamation marks that denote the barking mad. Funny, I thought it was the EU that ruled ‘our country’.

For Labour, we’ve the curious and frankly incredible spectacle of the distinctly unimaginative, though well-meaning, union man Stuart Roden welcoming the endorsement from hairy-chested celebrity pseudo-anarchist Russell Brand.

If that’s unexpected, then even more unexpected would be victory for the Lib Dem’s Simon Rix. The Lib Dems came second here last time but their campaign doesn’t have the feel of victory about it. Rix, who can’t tell a Cornish Assembly from Cornwall Council, claims to see no green surge in Falmouth. Instead the town is ‘turning gold again’. Perhaps he meant ‘turning cold again’ – bleddy weather. Anyhow, he’s ‘your local champion’ and ‘on your side’ and refers to a website misnamed ‘Vote Smart’. This humorously calls for ‘left of centre’ voters to vote for him in Truro rather than any of the five further left candidates available. As ‘Vote Smart’ also recommends Liberal Democrats for the discerning ‘left of centre’ voter in every single Cornish constituency, including Camborne-Redruth, it’s either an elaborate spoof or should be renamed ‘Vote Liberal Democrat and act like a gullible idiot’.

Which is precisely what the majority who vote in Truro and Falmouth are set to do on Thursday. Not vote Lib Dem though, but vote for that nice Tory Sarah Newton.

Too nice to vote against

Sarah may have floated spectrally over mid-Cornwall since 2010, an insubstantial phantasm wrapped inside an enigma, seemingly obliviously unaware of the tawdry business of Tory politics, with its naked appeal to the selfish and the greedy. In Sarah’s world Tories never lie, education in Cornwall is ‘world-class’, you need a commission stuffed with the great and good to find out why people are having to use food banks, and it never rains in Truro or Falmouth. Nonetheless, despite, or perhaps because of, her Alice in Wonderland approach to politics, she exudes quiet confidence, effortlessly batting away what she terms Lib Dem ‘dirty tricks’. Although by Lib Dem standards they look like normal campaigning to most people. No matter, Truro and Falmouth is set to return the nice Ms Newton again, and remain safe for neoliberalism, developers and consumers young and old.

Hoping to be proved very wrong, here’s my prediction …

1. Newton (neoliberal Con)	37%
2. Rix (neoliberal LD)	21%
3. Roden (neoliberal Lab)	15%
4. Hyslop (neoliberal Ukip)	12%
5. Westbrook (anti-neoliberal GP)	9%
6. Evans (anti-neoliberal NHAP)	2%
7. Rich (Ind)	2%
8. Richardson (anti-neoliberal MK)	1%
9. Guffogg (anti-neoliberal POP)	<1%

St Austell round up: coalition candidates in mud-flying spat

Only a few weeks ago, the Tories’ Steve Double seemed to be cruising to a comfortable win in St Austell & Newquay. But now he’s let himself get a bit rattled. Steve has discovered that the Lib Dems are ‘masters of half truths and misrepresentations’. Really? What’s taken him so long to realise this? At the 2010 election the Lib Dems’ Stephen Gilbert fought a cynical campaign, draping himself in the Cornish flag in the clay country and then doing the same with the St George’s flag in Newquay.

This time, with all the pundits predicting he’ll lose, Gilbert is pulling out all the stops by publicising the £300,000 that Wainhomes director, William Ainscough, has given the Tories and accusing the Tories of planning to institute regional pay, in other words a pay cut for Cornish workers.

Rather endearingly, the other Steve has resisted the obvious riposte, which is to ask about the closeness of links between Wainhomes (and other developers come to that) and some Lib Dem councillors, who seem as keen to ramp up the ongoing colonisation of Cornwall as their Tory counterparts, with their fondness for the mass housing targets being proposed for Cornwall. Steve Double has however dug out a letter that proves that Liberal Democrat Danny Alexander was also supporting regional pay.

Joanna Kerry

Of course, little things like facts aren’t going to stop Gilbert, who’ll stoop to any desperate measure to retain his seat. For instance, there’s a very curious message of support on his website from a Joanna Kerry of Newquay, described as a ‘local resident and campaigner’ in Newquay. But Joanna Kerry bears an uncanny resemblance to Joanna Kenny, Lib Dem Newquay councillor and the person in whose name large donations have flowed into local Lib Dem constituency coffers over the past year or two. Must be a strange coincidence.

Joanna Kenny

Also on his website, Lib Dem Cornwall Councillor Malcom Brown claims that Gilbert ‘will put Cornwall first’. As in putting Cornwall first in the last Parliament by voting for a Devonwall constituency that is. Gilbert claims he’s blocked a snooper’s charter and secured an EU referendum in law, but strangely he doesn’t claim credit for being one of the most loyal supporters of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition government, with a voting record difficult to tell apart from his Tory MP neighbours.

All this means the mud being thrown around St Austell & Newquay is an awful lot of sound and fury that signifies precisely nothing. When it comes down to it, the two Steves are as close as you’re likely to find in a pair of coalition candidates. And as disingenuous. As Steve Double says, people should choose a candidate ‘based on fact not misinformation’. So that presumably means he can’t possibly agree with Cameron and Osborne’s completely fabricated and misinformed narrative about the role of Labour’s ‘high spending’ in causing the crash of 2008 then.

Moving on from this pair and trying to ignore the slightly nasty taste left in our mouths, who’s left? We have David Mathews of Ukip. Not exactly fitting the stereotypical mould of Ukip candidate, David’s share of the vote seems to be holding up better than that of his Ukip colleagues north and west. This is presumably because of the baleful presence of Newquay. He was still within touch of Steve Gilbert according to a poll taken in March but the Ukip organisation on the ground, or lack of it, will probably let him down.

Labour and the Green will be battling with MK for fourth place here. MK’s Dick Cole is the best known and most ’embedded’ candidate and is likely to pick up a personal vote in the clay country. Whether this will be enough to give him the extra percentage point he needs to save his deposit we’ll have to wait to see on Friday. However, Dick is hampered in two ways. First, there’s the declining but still persistent appeal to vote tactically for the Lib Dems in order to dish the Tories. This increasingly ridiculous call is being hysterically promoted by Gilbert’s campaign. A Lib Dem volunteer told me that Dick was making a good impression on the hustings but added that this wouldn’t gain him a single vote. The somewhat arrogant and condescending implication being that nobody would be daft enough to waste their vote on MK when they could vote for the fine Mr Gilbert.

For the Greens we have Steve Slade and for Labour Deborah Hopkins. Both have Newquay connections although Green and /or Labour voters in Newquay must be a relatively rare breed. Deborah has a lively social media presence and is not surprisingly against the evils of tactical voting. Let’s hope she tells that to her fellow Labour candidate in Camborne-Redruth.

For what it’s worth, here’s my prediction. Despite his recent wobbles I still expect Steve Double to take this seat, although Gilbert’s aggressive campaigning may make it closer than it once looked.

1. Double (Con)	34%
2. Gilbert (LD)	30%
3. Mathews (Ukip)	18%
4. Hopkins (Lab)	8%
5. Cole (MK)	5%
6. Slade (GP)	5%

South East Cornwall: Coalition certainty

Everyone backs Sheryll

Sadly these days, South East Cornwall is the least Cornish of all Cornish constituencies. It’s also the most Tory, although the Tory is a swashbuckling Cornish fisherwoman, Sheryll Murray. Sheryll has a professional operation and the Tories have attracted (or paid for) a large number of facebook likes. She’s also frighteningly active on social media, although the same posts are repeated again and again, and then tweeted just to make sure you get the message. If you believe the hype everyone and anyone in south east Cornwall is backing Sheryll, not just fishermen and farmers. They just can’t wait to vote for her, eagerly steering their zimmer frames in the direction of the postbox to return that postal vote.

Lagging far behind is the Lib Dems’ Phil Hutty. Phil is the equivalent of snooker’s Steve Davies, nice but interesting. He says he’s been having ‘interesting conversations with all manner of interesting people’ as he knocks on 15,000 doors. Which was nice. Most people either take pity or have been too polite to say bugger off and this has left Phil with the very mistaken impression that ‘it’s very close’. It isn’t, Phil. You’re languishing behind Sheryll by several thousand mindless votes, as she heads for a comfortable win. Phil’s problem is summed up when he tells us Millbrook surgery is under threat of closure and this shows the ‘weakness of the NHS under the Conservatives’. The only tiny problem with that is that I’m sure the Lib Dems were lurking around in the background somewhere too.

This is the constituency with two candidates who are barely out of short trousers. One of them is very active, the other a little more elusive. Bradley Monk for Ukip has found a ‘worrying amount of non-voters’ in Saltash and Pensilva, which is hardly surprising in Pensilva, which for many years was thought to exist in a time-warp left over from the 1930s. While levels of support in Looe and Polperro were ‘encouraging’. Brad’s task is how to wean these right-thinking anti-European coastal dwellers away from Sheryll, who’s pretty indistinguishable from Ukip on most issues. Inland, surely the disillusioned voters met on the moors should all be clamouring to enrol in Farage’s ‘People’s Army’. That they aren’t shows the limits of this brand of populism.

Labour’s Declan Lloyd was spotted at the last hustings yesterday at Callington, although he skipped an earlier one as he was on holiday with his mum. Declan is apparently surprised that no big names from the coalition parties have bothered to visit the seat. Someone really ought to inform him that it’s hardly a secret; it’s because they all regard the outcome here as completely cut and dried. Somewhat boringly, Declan concentrates on facebook on reposting central office Labour stuff.

As does Martin Corney in respect of the Greens. Like North Cornwall, the Greens may well challenge Labour here for fourth place. Meanwhile, Andrew Long for MK tries to surmount the slight obstacle of being studiously and deliberately ignored by the BBC throughout the campaign. Andrew, along with the MK candidates in St Austell and Camborne, preferred to attend two excruciatingly lengthy Cornwall Council meetings last week rather than campaign. He did this to show his commitment to the local people he represents. Very worthy although, as this wouldn’t be reported, local people will be blissfully unaware and only political anoraks like those who waste their time writing (and reading) this drivel will know anything about it.

Here’s my prediction. Confidently expect Sheryll to be breaking open a bottle (or three) on Friday. Mind you, in 2010 I thought this seat would be very close and even tipped the Lib Dem to sneak it. Which probably proves you shouldn’t really believe a word you read here.

1. Murray (Con)	41%
2. Hutty (LD)	23%
3. Monk (Ukip)	17%
4. Lloyd (Lab)	9%
5. Corney (GP)	7%
6. Long (MK)	2%
7. Trubody (Ind)	1%

North Cornwall: Coalition to win

At last, this tedious charade nears its thankful denouement. Soon we’ll be spared the scaremongering, beancounting and ignoring the real issues we’ve had to endure for the last few months. Parliamentarians can then get back to the real business of making cuts and ensuring the most vulnerable pay to keep casino capitalism on the road. Let’s start the final constituency round-ups in the far north, Once upon a time, elections here were exciting as Liberals and Conservatives battled it out in a surrogate battle between church and chapel, booze and temperance, landlord and tenant, town and country. Now we only have the sorry spectacle of two coalition candidates vying for victory. Dan Rogerson and Scott Mann between them are, according to recent polls, attracting around three quarters of those who’ll bother to vote (although this is only half the registered electors in North Cornwall).

Rogerson doesn’t do social media but he’s quietly using the formidable local Lib Dem machine to corral the voters. Among his claims is credit for road improvements which will increase the capacity to continue the high population growth strategy that he seems to be so keen on. Although his majority may have slipped from 6% in 2010 to 2% in the most recent polls, those polls do suggest he’s been able to pick up more votes since last summer than Scott Mann, his Tory rival.

Tory Scott Mann, all rugged and Poldark-like

Turning from Tweedledee to Tweedledum, we read that Mann’s being getting a ‘great response’ (don’t they always – when’s a candidate going to say ‘crap response in X today’?) in Bude and Marhamchurch, where people were terrified of the prospect of the SNP propping up a Labour Government. Why this phobia should make them more likely to vote Tory is a mystery, unless they’re equally scared of the prospect of Rogerson again propping up a Tory Government. Scott has a small problem as there are now fewer ghost second home voters to rely on here. So to make up for that loss, he’s been turning to visits from top Tories. Such as Grant Shapps, or is it Michael Green, which he unaccountably appears to believe is a vote winner. If one dodgy character wasn’t enough, George Osborne also popped down to assure Scott that he wouldn’t reinstate a pasty tax. Although he doesn’t need to as they haven’t actually got rid of the last one yet.

Dan Rogerson – more pasty-like

Julie Lingard has watched support for Ukip steadily drift away since last summer, when for an instant Ukip looked to be picking up around a quarter of the vote in North Cornwall. It’s now down to the general GB average and an entirely more reasonable level as Ukip’s flock wanders dozily back to graze greedily on Tory and Lib Dem promises. Julie’s been busy publicising Ukip policies, such as tougher penalties for animal cruelty, which wouldn’t have been so welcome news for a previous Ukip candidate further west. She’s also been having throwbacks to the days when candidates had election meetings rather than hustings, holding a series of local meetings around the constituency. What next? Heckling? The open ballot?

It’s likely that John Whitby for Labour and Amanda Pennington of the Greens will be fighting it out for fourth place and the honour of saving their deposits. They’re presently neck and neck in the polls, although Amanda has the dubious advantage of an endorsement from Kernow King. While the King is going for MK in the rest of Cornwall, his attention was captured by Amanda’s energetic campaign (and her red hair.) When it comes to social media she’s way out in front, with 57 facebook posts last week alone, engaging 2,300 people. However, somewhat sadly, a video of her campaign which appeared in the Telegraph, paints a picture of a one-women campaign strapped for cash, with few posters and with only one leaflet to hand out. Are there no other Green Party members in North Cornwall?

Labour’s John Whitby is also quite active on social media, although nowhere near as frenetic or compelling as Amanda. He’s been providing an admirable public service however, by informing voters of Dan Rogerson’s voting record. He’s also been holding street parties in Bodmin, Bude and Wadebridge, accompanied by a blues singer. Unfortunately, no-one seems to come to them though. Looks like fun, but may not win that many votes.

Not a voter in sight in wet Wadebridge

Finally, we have Jeff Jefferies for MK, a last minute candidate who thinks that Cornwall was ‘effectively self-governing until the 1750s’ and is therefore out-doing even Ukip in the nostalgia stakes, let alone the wishful-thinking zone. Then there’s an even more last minute candidate – John Allman from Lanson – who’s standing because every child needs a father. (Don’t ask me; I don’t know either.)

Without the second home voters, North Cornwall may be safer for Rogerson than it appears. Nonetheless, Scott Mann’s impeccable local roots will do him no harm. I can’t believe that last time around I called for a vote for Rogerson here in order to keep a particularly obnoxious pro-tourist lobby Tory out. How stupid was that? I must have been young and naive. I’m now older, more bitter, cynical and twisted. If this goes on, by 2020 I’ll be a Ukip voter. So this time anyone but Rogerson (oh, but not Mann, Lingard or Allman please).

Here’s my prediction for the seat …

1. Rogerson (LD)	39%
2. Mann (Con)	37%
3. Lingard (Ukip)	14%
4. Pennington (GP)	5%
5. Whitby (Lab)	4%
6. Jefferies (MK)	1%
7. Allman (Ind)	<1%

Is there any point in voting Liberal Democrat?

Let’s take a short trip down memory lane and remember those days in the spring of 2010. Bliss it was in that dawn to be a Liberal Democrat, brimming with youthful energy and enthusiasm in their quest to slay the Tory dragon.

Dusting off those old election leaflets from that year, what do we find and how does it then compare with what happened?

Oh look, Stephen Gilbert, bless him, was opposed to the incinerator at St Dennis and he was against plans for an eco-town in the clay country

• the incinerator, instituted and pushed by the Lib Dems, got built
• the eco-town is going to get built with the plans being proposed by Cornwall Council, controlled by … err, the Lib Dems

Up in the north, Dan Rogerson was going to help ‘make Britain a fairer place to live’

• yet inequality is on the rise again as ‘the tax and benefit changes since 2010 have been largely regressive’

Meanwhile in 2010, the Lib Dems promised to ‘give people the power to sack corrupt MPs’

• they haven’t

In Camborne-Redruth, Julia Goldsworthy said ‘we need strong local MPs to fight the Tory cuts’ and protect ‘vital public services’

• Lib Dems in Parliament have supported the Tory cuts and Cornwall Council has had to slash £366 million from its budget, close toilets, get rid of libraries, cut social care and privatise services, not to mention make a load of staff redundant

Julia was arguing that the Lib Dems would stop housing on greenfield sites by opposing ‘top down housing targets’ while introducing powers to stop the spread of second homes

• the Lib Dems have been part of a government that has stealthily re-imposed top down housing targets
•  second homes are still spreading

Julia promised a lot more money for Cornish schools if the Lib Dems were in government

• they are but in 2013 Cornish primary schools were warning of a crisis because of lack of funds

And whatever happened to that famed Liberal Democrat ‘fair deal for Cornwall’?

• Cornwall is still underfunded
•  in 2011 all three Cornish Lib Dem MPs voted for the final reading of the Government’s Equal Constituencies Bill. If implemented, this will demolish Cornwall’s historical political border and set back the struggle to obtain special treatment for Cornwall by decades
• and despite five years in government that elusive Cornish Assembly remains just as elusive

In 2010 the Lib Dems told us that ‘a vote for Labour or the smaller parties will only help the Conservatives’

• and then they helped the Conservatives.

Don’t get fooled again. While we’re at it, we might also note the long list of Tory broken promises. And when we listen to all the spin about which party will join which or refuse to join another in potential coalitions, bear in mind this gem, printed in the Telegraph just four days before the last election.

Cornwall and the election 3: the crisis of invisibility (or is it too being too visible?)

Wasn’t it Ghandhi who said ‘First, they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win’?

The Cornish are clearly still stuck in the first of these phases although, when we’re privileged enough to be noticed, we can slip easily into the second. Then we have to endure the usual spate of half-arsed, neo-racist and puerile jokes from those embarrassed, shocked and/or insulted by the very idea of a Cornish people who deserve equal status with the other nations sharing these islands.

A year ago, the Government announced it was bringing the Cornish within the scope of the Council of Europe’s Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities in recognition of the ‘unique identity of the Cornish’. This was welcomed rather over-enthusiastically by most politicians in Cornwall, with the exception of Ukip and those who suspected it amounted to no more than tokenism.

A year on and apart from providing some continuing funding for the Cornish Language Partnership (although not enough to offset the cuts from Cornwall Council), little seems to have changed. The Convention provides a framework within which the Cornish could be granted equal status with the other nations. Its primary focus is cultural rights. However, there is precious little evidence that it has had any perceptible effect on that casually patronising elite attitude towards Cornwall so well summed up by David Cameron when he said ‘It’s the Tamar, not the Amazon, for heaven’s sake’.

Nonetheless, the Convention allows for the distinct possibility of more political action. For example, it could be used to challenge the juggernaut of developer-led suburbanisation that is de-Cornishizing Cornwall. For Article 16 says ‘The Parties (i.e. including the UK Government) should refrain from measures which alter the proportions of the population in areas inhabited by persons belonging to national minorities ….’ This leaves a lot of wriggle room and promises a bonanza for the barristers to quibble over. But it does provide another potential political pressure point.

Not that the Government seems over-keen to listen. Their compliance report to the Council of Europe, submitted in March, is basically a joke. The references to Cornwall and the Cornish in it are so superficial as to be meaningless. Listing all sorts of cultural endeavours that they had nothing at all to do with encouraging, the Government then firmly stamps its jackboot – ‘In extending the Framework Convention to the Cornish, the Government made clear that this was without prejudice as to whether the Cornish meet the definition of racial group in the Equality Act 2010 as only the courts may decide that’. So there we have it. In other words, despite the Framework Convention, they’re still stubbornly refusing to extend the same rights to the Cornish as to the Welsh or Scots.

It hardly comes as a great surprise that no party standing in this election apart from MK is prepared to right this wrong. In fact mention of Cornwall in the manifestos is rare. Well, actually, it remains invisible in the Tory, Labour and Ukip cases. The Lib Dems have one reference to a Cornish Assembly, which they persist in confusing with a jumped up local council. The Greens also mention Cornwall in the context of an Assembly but then, rather worryingly, also include Cornwall in a postscript on an ideal Green world. Here, you can enjoy your ‘two weeks on a beach’ in Cornwall, your re-nationalized train getting you ‘practically to the campsite gate’.

‘Ow do ya steer this bleddy thing?

So the Greens are firmly locating Cornwall in that externally-created fantasy-land, one where Poldark gallops frantically and pointlessly along deserted cliffs and the sun is always setting. This isn’t far from the ‘Cornwall lifestyle’ of the broadsheet weekend supplements, as they implicitly encourage second home ownership and consign Cornwall to the status of liminal leisure zone for the delectation of the metropolitan professional and business classes.

It’s as if we exist behind a two-way mirror. From inside, we can see out, but from the outside people can only see their own stereotypes reflected back at them. Dazzled by their image of a romantic but domesticated Cornwall, impossibly remote in time but cosily close in space, they’re just not capable of taking Cornwall or the demands of its people for special consideration with any degree of seriousness.

Although, maybe it’s not a two-way but a two-sided mirror, as we also look into it and discover the same stereotypes, all soaring cliffs, thundering surf and slumbering self-confidence, staring sternly back at us. Unable to escape them, we shrug our shoulders and imagine how we might commandeer Cap’n Poldark in the interests of the Cornish people rather than letting him add to the tourist industry-led pillaging of Cornwall.

Now that we have the tool of the Framework Convention, do we need a forthright Cornish People’s Party unafraid to push for equal treatment and status with the other national minorities of the UK? Is MK that party?

North Cornwall poll: Lib Dems shading it though still too close to call

The last Cornish constituency poll of the election appeared yesterday. This was for North Cornwall, now polled four times in a year by Ashcroft. Over that time, the share of the vote for Lib Dem Rogerson and Tory Mann has risen, while that for Ukip and Labour fell. The Greens have hovered around the 5% mark.

Although there’s been a considerable shift back to the two familiar parties since last year, this poll shows very little change since the last one taken in March. Rogerson continues to eke out a narrow 2% lead, but one still uncomfortably within the margin of error. It looks like the winner here will be he who squeezes the other parties most in the last five days. Mann has a 14% Ukip share to aim at, while Rogerson can try to steal back a 13% Labour/Green/MK share. Neither has an obvious advantage in the tactical vote struggle, therefore.

Moreover, the total score for others, at around 27%, has not shifted over the last month of campaigning. It could be that the low hanging fruit was picked over the winter. The Ukip and Green vote now looks fairly stable. Moreover, the leap in the score for others over the last month by 2%, from 1% to 3%, may prove welcome news for MK. Here’s the change since the last election.

Cornwall and the election 2: the crisis of powerlessness

The second ongoing crisis Cornish communities confront is the inability to control the changes wreaking havoc on our land. The hurdle of dictatorial central government power looms across our path. Inevitably, this is extremely convenient for local agents of the state, either bureaucrats or elected. Councillors and their officers hold up their hands in innocent helplessness. ‘It’s nothing to do with us, folks. We have to do this; we have no choice’. On the occasions they don’t meekly follow their orders, appeals and enquiries, heavily weighted towards those with time and money, ensure any temporary resistance is quashed and decisions overturned.

In this way, attempts to slow down or reverse excessive and unsustainable population growth and halt new settlements through the planning process are doomed. Indeed, local ‘consultations’ merely provide a veneer of legitimacy for centrally imposed targets and serve to soak up the energy of campaigners who are left squabbling over where to put the deck chairs as the Titanic serenely steams onwards, ever onwards. The ‘National’ Planning Policy Framework, or the massive cuts in local government funding in Cornwall, or the external control of European grant money, are all part of the apparatus of central power. To begin to bring decision-making closer to people and communities in Cornwall, and ultimately move towards a time when we decide in Cornwall rather then let them decide for us in London, some measure of devolution might be a good idea.

Devolution is now flavour of the month as the old parties run scared of the SNP. Even versions of federalism are taken out of the box, dusted down and timidly given an airing. But while devolution is now admitted into polite company, devolution to Cornwall is another matter entirely and must wait, begging bowl in hand, meekly standing at the kitchen door.

The Tories, committed to new tax and spend powers for Scotland and Wales (and to the Barnett formula) declare proudly that England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (spot the missing nation) make up ‘the greatest union of nations the world has ever seen’. While this belongs on the shelf marked ‘Typical Tory hyperbole’, it’s significant that Cornwall is missing. For when it comes to practical suggestions outside Scotland and Wales, the Tories get all tongue-tied. There’ll be no devolution to English regions either and Tory ‘devolution’ in practice seems to amount to letting ‘local people have more say on local planning’. Given their record in this area over the last five years, when they’ve allowed local people precious little say while giving bucketfuls to their developer chums, this of course entirely lacks credibility.

Labour’s promises on Scotland and Wales are almost identical. Though they add the possibility of English city and county regions, but only in order, it appears, ‘to drive economic growth and prosperity’. As they don’t mention Cornwall either, it’s unclear whether this leaves the kitchen door ajar for us or whether the Cornish pussy-cat is set to drown in an imposed top-down Devonwall functional region. Locally, Labour candidates treat the Cornish Assembly with contempt, which is a bit odd, or stupid, as the polling evidence indicates Labour voters are quite keen on a Cornish Assembly.

As, even more incredibly, are Ukip voters. But Ukip will have no truck with devolution, regarded as an unholy EU plot to dismember the UK. In fact, they’d get rid of the Barnett formula and see off those pesky Scots wildlings once and for all.

The Lib Dems are a lot more forthcoming, harking back to the days of Gladstone and home rule all round. They curiously claim that in government they’ve ‘devolved power to councils and communities’. This must be as in devolving the power to starve, as they mysteriously omit to mention the swingeing cuts in council budgets they’ve also made as local government took the brunt of the failed 2010-12 austerity experiment. But sound the trumpets and praise the Lord, they’re promising devolution ‘for example’ to a Cornish Assembly. Except that it turns out it isn’t a Cornish Assembly; it’s devolution to the discredited Cornwall Council. This would be a mega-disaster for the cause of Cornish devolution on a par with the Lib Dem driven imposition of this unfit for purpose institution in the first place. The sad old Liberal Democrats are either having a laugh or still clearly fail to understand the words ‘Cornish Assembly’, confusing them with with ‘Cornwall Council’.

The Greens explicitly want to create an Assembly for Cornwall, with similar powers to the Welsh Assembly. MK goes further, proposing a National Assembly with powers at least equal to the Scottish Parliament in 1998. Curiously, the Con/Lab/Libs sagely tell us that voting for MK would be a wasted vote. But then, they used to say that about the SNP not so long ago.