Polls frozen: royal princess to rescue?

You have to admire the English ruling class. Almost perfect timing for the birth of another royal highness, dear of her. Pity it wasn’t Tuesday, but even five days before a close election a couple of days of wall to wall royalist sycophancy can’t possibly do any harm to the Tory cause. In a tight election even a single percentage point fillip might just do the trick.

And it is a tight election as, back in the real world, the polls remain static with the two biggest parties still locked together. What movement there’s been over the past week has involved a slight rise for the Tories and an equivalent fall for Labour. Labour were ahead in four of the week’s seven daily YouGov polls, compared with a lead in six of the previous week’s seven. All of which indicates a slow shift back to the Tories.

Meanwhile, the Lib Dems also gained a bit over the last week, while both Ukip and the Greens slipped back. Yet if we compare the polls now with those of a month ago when the campaign proper began, we can see that campaign might as well not have happened for all the effect it’s had, which would would have saved all of us a lot of grief.

w/e May 2 w/e April 5 change
Conservatives 34.0% 35.4% -1.4%
Labour 34.1% 34.6% -0.5%
Lib Dems 8.4% 8.0% +0.4%
Ukip 12.7% 12.4% +0.3%
Greens 4.7% 4.6% +0.1%
SNP/PC 4.7% 4.6% +0.1%

And in Scotland? Here, there does seem to be more of a definite trend as the SNP has increased its lead over Labour for the fourth week running. This is not good news for Ed who gambled the party silver heavily this week on foolishly ruling out any deal with the SNP in order to mollify middle England and the Tory press. By doing so he’s as good as stated openly that he prefers the continuation of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition to an anti-Tory government involving the SNP. Insane.

snp lead

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