The week’s polls – much sound and fury signifying nothing. Or subtle trends?

Daily polling this past week from YouGov tells a story of much sound and fury that signifies basically not much. Manifesto launches come and go, unfunded promises are scattered like careless confetti, leaders debates are endured and the real issues continue to be in the main ignored. But the voters remain largely unmoved.

camerondespairThat said, can we detect a couple of trends over the first two weeks of the campaign proper? First, for the second week running we’ve seen Labour’s lead over the Tories widen. Cue panic among the Eton chaps. Second, if anything there’s evidence that the squeeze on the challenger parties by the old Westminster gang has stalled. For the second week running Ukip’s share of the polls has risen. So has that of the Greens, although by a tiny amount. And in Scotland, the SNP’s healthy lead over Labour remains solid. Time is running out for Scottish Labour, facing a PASOK style meltdown.

This may explain the growing squeals from Labour apologists as they urge potential Greens to vote tactically to stop the evil Tories. Although, given the far higher poll rating of Ukip, one might have thought they’d be better employed trying to think of ways of winning back their rightwards deserters.

Here’s the week’s poll changes and the recent trend.

w/e April 19 w/e April 10 change
Conservatives 33.4% 33.8% -0.4%
Labour 34.9% 34.6% +0.3%
Lib Dems 7.9% 7.8% +0.1%
Ukip 13.3% 13.0% +0.3%
Greens 5.1% 5.0% +0.1%
SNP/PC 4.6% 4.6% nc

VI Apr 19

Here in Cornwall the poster war is well under way. The strange thing however is the lack of Ukip activity on the ground, given their bragging last year about winning seats in Cornwall. The only Ukip leaflets received in our household have been accompanied by Chinese takeaway menus (difficult to know which is more appetising), suggesting Ukip is paying for delivery. The People’s Army seems to be sitting at home with its feet up, drinking cocoa.


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