The election outcome according to the bookies

What’s the current betting telling us about the result of the general election? The best odds available for Cornish seats are as follows.

Current best odds available

Con Lib Dem Ukip Labour Green MK Ind NHAP
Camborne 8/13 8/1 16/5 28/1 100/1 150/1 100/1
North 5/4 5/6 16/1 150/1 100/1
South East 1/7 13/2 20/1 150/1 150/1 150/1
St Austell 4/6 5/2 9/2 150/1 100/1 250/1
St Ives 6/5 1/1 12/1 125/1 50/1 200/1
Truro 1/4 6/1 18/1 100/1 100/1 200/1 100/1 100/1

The bookies inform us that the Lib Dems stand little chance in Camborne and Redruth, Truro and Falmouth or South East Cornwall. Meanwhile, Steve Gilbert also looks unlikely to retain his seat at St Austell and Newquay, handing over to another Tory. Indeed, the money points to four Tories and two Lib Dems, although it might be worth taking a punt on the Tories to take all six Cornish seats.

Not much credibility is being given by punters to the Greens targeting of St Ives, while Ukip’s best chances on the basis of this is Camborne and Redruth, with only an outside chance at St Austell and Newquay. Nonetheless, it might be worth considering a punt on Ukip at St Austell, given these odds. Other bets worth considering on the basis of last year’s constituency polling might be for Lib Dems in St Austell or Labour in Camborne.

On the basis of the betting it looks like an uphill struggle for MK. 250-1 and the longest odds in Cornwall seems to greatly understate Dick Cole’s chances in St Austell however. And will MK really come behind both Independent and National Health Action Party candidates in Truro? Of course, betting odds merely reflect the weight of money being wagered. So MK supporters could always get down to the bookies and shift the odds. Or maybe they’d do better putting any spare cash into campaigning.

What do the odds more generally suggest for the election outcome? Here’s the prediction based on the betting.

General election seat outcome based on betting favourites

2015 2010 change
Conservative 275 306 -31
Labour 276 258 +18
Lib Dem 31 57 -26
SNP 41 6 +35
Plaid 3 3
Ukip 3 0 +3
Respect 1 0 +1
Irish and Speaker 19 19

If this is the outcome then not only will one party be unable to form a majority; no two parties will. In which case expect the German scenario and a grand coalition of Tories and Labour to save the system from collapse.

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One thought on “The election outcome according to the bookies

  1. I think such a coalition would finish the Labour Party and it would be resurrected by a Lansbury type figure as in 1930s. On a small matter I would be surprised if Greens lost in Brighton and Gorgeous George held Bradford West but hey we will know soon.

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