The polls are beginning to tell a consistent story. This week’s YouGov daily polling suggests that the Tories have pulled up to their highest level of support since August. As Labour’s share remains stubbornly stuck the Tories have now edged ahead for only the second time since last April.
Comparing these weekly averages over the recent period also suggests three other trends.
- Liberal Democrat support has risen for the third week running. It’s now back at levels not seen since October.
- Ukip’s share is at its lowest level since August. This reinforces other polls that are generally indicating a loss of Ukip support since the New Year.
- As voters begin to revert to the Lib Dems, support for the Greens has continued to slide for the third week running. It’s now at its lowest level this year and almost two percentage points below the peak of its ‘surge’, which ended in mid-January. It will hardly have been helped by the embarrassingly awful media interviews given by Natalie Bennett this week and interestingly its lowest share in the polls was recorded after the LBC debacle.
The fall in Ukip and Green support and rise in that for the coalition parties may indicate that the expected swing back to the Establishment parties is under way as people begin to focus on the General Election. Or maybe it’s just temporary. We can only hope.
What do these trends mean for Cornish seats? On the basis of these polls and last year’s constituency polling South East Cornwall and Truro look safe for the Tories, while they’re now also clearly in the lead in St Austell (with Ukip and the Lib Dems within touch) and Camborne (with Ukip within 10 points). Meanwhile, North Cornwall and St Ives are dead heats between Tories and Lib Dems.
Unless this rollback to the familiar can be halted, at present it’s just a question of whether the Tories win four or six seats in Cornwall.