The dead cat has bounced: Lib Dems squeeze back into fourth place

The daily YouGov polling over this past week shows little change, with one exception. Labour retains its slim lead over the Tories although both parties fell back a little from last week. No sign here of any effect of the media’s attempt to paint labour as ‘bad for business’. Probably because no-one believes it as Ed Balls cosies up to the City and Labour sends out its usual confused and ambiguous messages as it clings on to the Westminster austerity consensus.

The exception is the Lib Dems who, oscillating around 7%, this week find themselves the only party to show a rise in support. Meanwhile, they’ve snuck back ahead of the Greens, whose ‘surge’ appears to have well and truly stalled over the past fortnight. Ukip also saw its support slip to its lowest level since last September. Here’s the latest figures.

2-6 February 26-30 January change
Conservatives 32.8% 33.4% -0.6%
Labour 33.4% 33.6% -0.2%
Lib Dems 7.2% 6.4% +0.8%
Ukip 14.2% 14.8% -0.6%
Greens 6.6% 6.8% -0.2%
SNP/PC 4.2% 4.4% -0.2%
Others 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

(Figures don’t add up to 100 due to rounding)

Coincidentally, the Lib Dems have been up to their old tricks of manipulating past voting data. In Camborne-Redruth a leaflet claims ‘there are just 66 votes between the Lib Dems and the Tories’. That should of course read ‘were’ as it precedes their support for Tory policies and as two polls last year both put them firmly in fourth place in Camborne and Redruth. Lib Dems might do better to reflect on the 67 votes that were scored in a local by-election in Nottingham last year by Lord Biro of the Bus Pass Elvis Party. That was 11 votes more than the Lib Dem candidate got. With polls in Scotland this week predicting a near wipe-out for the Lib Dems there and Clegg looking likely to lose his Sheffield seat, Cornwall might well end up being one of the few places to return one or two Lib Dems in May. But Camborne & Redruth won’t be one of them.

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