Polling update: swinging back to the corporate parties?

Both Tories and Labour can take some heart this week from a small but significant upturn in their average polling scores across the five YouGov daily polls. Both gained over a point to leave Labour narrowly maintaining its very slender lead. Ukip, Greens and Lib Dems all fell back. The Lib Dems were again at their lowest ever score, a place they’ve been hovering around now since mid-December.

Voting intention Great Britain (% mean of daily YouGov polls)

26-30 January 19-23 January change
Conservatives 33.4% 32.0% +1.4%
Labour 33.6% 32.2% +1.4%
Lib Dems 6.4% 7.2% -0.8%
Ukip 14.8% 15.2% -0.4%
Greens 6.8% 8.0% -1.2%
SNP/PC 4.4% 4.6% -0.2%
Others 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

The biggest drop however, was for the Greens, whose score was the lowest for five weeks. One week’s polling is hardly enough to conclude the Green surge is over but now the TV debate issue is won, the sympathy vote may well dissipate. Expect some ferocious media grilling of its current leader, Natalie Bennett, who did not have a good week.

Extrapolate the week’s change to Cornwall and the change is enough to tip the current predicted seat outcome to four or five Tories (gaining North Cornwall and possibly St Ives), one or no Lib Dems and one Ukip at St Austell and Newquay.

Meanwhile, it’s a different story in Scotland, where the long-awaited and prayed for (in London anyway) swing back from the SNP to Labour is still stubbornly refusing to happen. In fact, this past week the SNP scored its biggest lead of the year so far over Scottish Labour – a massive 17%.

We can compare the current polling averages with those at the same point (and the same polling company) before the 2010 election. Here it is.

change Jan 10-15

In January 2010 Labour enjoyed a 9% lead over the SNP in Scotland.

If there were a similar movement in the polls between now and May as there was in 2010 (although a Lib Dem surge this time is surely not credible) we would expect an outcome something like this.

Result of 2015 election given same move in polls as 2010

Conservatives 29%
Labour 32%
Lib Dems 11%
Ukip 15%
Greens 6%

Which all points to a hung parliament.


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