Weekly poll update: Greens extend lead over Lib Dems

The average of the past week’s five daily YouGov polls brings good news for the Greens and Liberal Democrats and bad news for Labour and Ukip. The Greens hit another record high and attained 8% for the first time this week. This consolidates the party’s lead over the Lib Dems, despite a slight bounce for the Lib Dems, up from their record low level of last week. Even so, they didn’t gain so much as the Greens, although it will be interesting to see if the Greens can maintain their momentum now they’ve got their TV debate.

Voting intention Great Britain (% mean of daily YouGov polls)

19-23 January 12-16 January change
Conservatives 32.0% 31.8% +0.2%
Labour 32.2% 32.8% -0.6%
Lib Dems 7.2% 6.4% +0.8%
Ukip 15.2% 16.0% -0.8%
Greens 8.0% 7.0% +1.0%
SNP/PC 4.6% 4.2% +0.4%
Others 0.8% 1.4% -0.6%

Support for Labour drifted down again and is now only 0.2% above the low point they experienced in the first week of December. The only good news for Labour is that the Tories continue to flatline. Meanwhile, Ukip dropped back from its shortlived boost last week, as did the Others. The trend is clear among the third parties. A steady rise for the Greens over the last three months, a slow fall in Ukip support since their by-election victories and flatlining Lib Dems.

3rd party vote Jan 22

There’s been talk (and not a little wishful thinking) about a swing back in Scotland from the SNP to Labour. It’s bound to occur eventually but there wasn’t much evidence for it this past week (and as the numbers here are low even with aggregating all five polls, the sampling error is consequently larger). The SNP’s lead over Labour in Scotland dropped 2% last week but is still a healthy 13%.

This week’s polling extrapolated to Cornwall swings North Cornwall back into the Lib Dem camp. So the current gloomy prediction is three Tories, two Lib Dems and one Ukip.

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