Polling update: coalition set to win 5/6 Cornish seats

What are the latest polls telling us? If we look at the daily polling undertaken by YouGov over the past quarter we see that things haven’t changed much since my last update. Labour remains slightly ahead of the Tories but both parties seem stuck on the 32-33% mark, as they have been since October.

Little change over rthe past 3 months
Little change over rthe past 3 months

Here’s the mean scores for the past week compared with the previous.

Voting intention Great Britain (% mean of daily YouGov polls)

12-16 January 5-9 January change
Conservatives 31.8% 32.2% -0.4%
Labour 32.8% 33.0% -0.2%
Lib Dems 6.4% 7.2% -0.8%
Ukip 16.0% 14.6% +1.4%
Greens 7.0% 7.2% -0.2%
SNP/PC 4.2% 4.2% no change
Others 1.4% 1.2% +0.2%

For the first time, the Greens were level or ahead of the Lib Dems in all five polls last week. They began to overtake the Lib Dems back in early December. Although their ‘surge’ seems to have stalled since mid-December, they remain ahead because the Lib Dems continue to enjoy/deserve their worst polling scores ever.

While the politics of hope mark time, the politics of fear have had a little boost this week. Ukip had been drifting downwards before Christmas and this trend continued into the first full week of polling in January. But this past week saw a slight fillip for Ukip, possibly a reaction to the Charlie Hebdo murders in France. They’re now back at levels last seen in November, although still below their peak of mid-October.

The knee-jerk reaction to the news from France may also lie behind a small rise in support for others, higher than at any time since early October. On two days this week support for the BNP registered at 1%, something the party hasn’t managed to achieve for months.

Meanwhile, in Scotland the SNP maintain an average 15% lead over Labour.

So what do the past week’s polls imply for Cornwall? If we assume the movement in Cornwall has mirrored that in Britain generally since Ashcroft’s constituency polling of last summer, the situation is as follows …

Camborne & Redruth: Con/Ukip marginal with Labour within 10%
North Cornwall: Con/Lib Dem level pegging with Ukip within 10%
South East Cornwall: Conservative with Ukip within 10%
St Austell & Newquay: Ukip/Con/Lib Dem marginal
St Ives: Lib Dem/Con marginal with Ukip within 10%
Truro & Falmouth: Conservative with Ukip within 10%

On the basis of this, the prediction currently is three or four Tory seats, one or two Lib Dems (St Ives and possibly North) and one Ukip (St Austell).

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